Charlotte, Richmond, Temple -- win 2 out of 3 and they have an at large sewn up regardless of what happens in the A-10 tourney. Lose 2 out of 3, and you're still in good shape but you need to get to the semis.
Lose one of the remaining cupcake games and you get a bad loss and doubt creeps in. Then you have to win 2 out of the big 3 and go deep in the tourney to make it a no-brainer. The Selection Committee has been tough on the A-10 in the last few years and the OK St. win is deteriorating in quality as they drop further in the RPI.
That game against Temple where we couldn't shoot a FT looms large -- a W there would have put us in a very strong position.